Applied Economic Forecasting Using Time Series Methods

Applied Economic Forecasting Using Time Series Methods PDF Author: Eric Ghysels
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0190622016
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 616

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Book Description
Economic forecasting is a key ingredient of decision making both in the public and in the private sector. Because economic outcomes are the result of a vast, complex, dynamic and stochastic system, forecasting is very difficult and forecast errors are unavoidable. Because forecast precision and reliability can be enhanced by the use of proper econometric models and methods, this innovative book provides an overview of both theory and applications. Undergraduate and graduate students learning basic and advanced forecasting techniques will be able to build from strong foundations, and researchers in public and private institutions will have access to the most recent tools and insights. Readers will gain from the frequent examples that enhance understanding of how to apply techniques, first by using stylized settings and then by real data applications--focusing on macroeconomic and financial topics. This is first and foremost a book aimed at applying time series methods to solve real-world forecasting problems. Applied Economic Forecasting using Time Series Methods starts with a brief review of basic regression analysis with a focus on specific regression topics relevant for forecasting, such as model specification errors, dynamic models and their predictive properties as well as forecast evaluation and combination. Several chapters cover univariate time series models, vector autoregressive models, cointegration and error correction models, and Bayesian methods for estimating vector autoregressive models. A collection of special topics chapters study Threshold and Smooth Transition Autoregressive (TAR and STAR) models, Markov switching regime models, state space models and the Kalman filter, mixed frequency data models, nowcasting, forecasting using large datasets and, finally, volatility models. There are plenty of practical applications in the book and both EViews and R code are available online.

Handbook of Economic Forecasting

Handbook of Economic Forecasting PDF Author: G. Elliott
Publisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 0080460674
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 1070

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Book Description
Research on forecasting methods has made important progress over recent years and these developments are brought together in the Handbook of Economic Forecasting. The handbook covers developments in how forecasts are constructed based on multivariate time-series models, dynamic factor models, nonlinear models and combination methods. The handbook also includes chapters on forecast evaluation, including evaluation of point forecasts and probability forecasts and contains chapters on survey forecasts and volatility forecasts. Areas of applications of forecasts covered in the handbook include economics, finance and marketing. *Addresses economic forecasting methodology, forecasting models, forecasting with different data structures, and the applications of forecasting methods *Insights within this volume can be applied to economics, finance and marketing disciplines

Forecasting Economic Time Series

Forecasting Economic Time Series PDF Author: Clive William John Granger
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economic forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 428

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Book Description
This book has been updated to reflect developments in time series analysis and forecasting theory and practice, particularly as applied to economics. The second edition pays attention to such problems as how to evaluate and compare forecasts.

Time Series Analysis and Adjustment

Time Series Analysis and Adjustment PDF Author: Haim Y. Bleikh
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1317010175
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 148

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Book Description
In Time Series Analysis and Adjustment the authors explain how the last four decades have brought dramatic changes in the way researchers analyze economic and financial data on behalf of economic and financial institutions and provide statistics to whomsoever requires them. Such analysis has long involved what is known as econometrics, but time series analysis is a different approach driven more by data than economic theory and focused on modelling. An understanding of time series and the application and understanding of related time series adjustment procedures is essential in areas such as risk management, business cycle analysis, and forecasting. Dealing with economic data involves grappling with things like varying numbers of working and trading days in different months and movable national holidays. Special attention has to be given to such things. However, the main problem in time series analysis is randomness. In real-life, data patterns are usually unclear, and the challenge is to uncover hidden patterns in the data and then to generate accurate forecasts. The case studies in this book demonstrate that time series adjustment methods can be efficaciously applied and utilized, for both analysis and forecasting, but they must be used in the context of reasoned statistical and economic judgment. The authors believe this is the first published study to really deal with this issue of context.

Economic Forecasting

Economic Forecasting PDF Author: Terence C. Mills
Publisher: Edward Elgar Pub
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 1192

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Book Description
This is a collection of over 50 articles on economic forecasting. Topics cover: macroeconomic forecasting and policy-making; time series forecasting; the econometrics of forecasting; forecast evaluation; forecasting with leading indicators; and forecasting using surveys.

A Companion to Economic Forecasting

A Companion to Economic Forecasting PDF Author: Michael P. Clements
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 140517191X
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 616

Get Book

Book Description
A Companion to Economic Forecasting provides an accessible and comprehensive account of recent developments in economic forecasting. Each of the chapters has been specially written by an expert in the field, bringing together in a single volume a range of contrasting approaches and views. Uniquely surveying forecasting in a single volume, the Companion provides a comprehensive account of the leading approaches and modeling strategies that are routinely employed.

Economic Forecasting

Economic Forecasting PDF Author: Ken Holden
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521356923
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 213

Get Book

Book Description
This work is the only currently available text that provides comprehensive coverage of the methods and applications in the rapidly developing field of forecasting the future state of the economy.

Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting

Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting PDF Author: Philip Hans Franses
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1139952129
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages :

Get Book

Book Description
With a new author team contributing decades of practical experience, this fully updated and thoroughly classroom-tested second edition textbook prepares students and practitioners to create effective forecasting models and master the techniques of time series analysis. Taking a practical and example-driven approach, this textbook summarises the most critical decisions, techniques and steps involved in creating forecasting models for business and economics. Students are led through the process with an entirely new set of carefully developed theoretical and practical exercises. Chapters examine the key features of economic time series, univariate time series analysis, trends, seasonality, aberrant observations, conditional heteroskedasticity and ARCH models, non-linearity and multivariate time series, making this a complete practical guide. Downloadable datasets are available online.

Applied Econometric Time Series, 4th Edition

Applied Econometric Time Series, 4th Edition PDF Author: Walter Enders
Publisher: Wiley Global Education
ISBN: 1118918665
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 496

Get Book

Book Description
Applied Econometric Time Series, 4th Edition demonstrates modern techniques for developing models capable of forecasting, interpreting, and testing hypotheses concerning economic data. In this text, Dr. Walter Enders commits to using a “learn-by-doing” approach to help readers master time-series analysis efficiently and effectively.

Applied Economic Forecasting Using Time Series Methods

Applied Economic Forecasting Using Time Series Methods PDF Author: Eric Ghysels
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0190622016
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 616

View

Book Description
Economic forecasting is a key ingredient of decision making both in the public and in the private sector. Because economic outcomes are the result of a vast, complex, dynamic and stochastic system, forecasting is very difficult and forecast errors are unavoidable. Because forecast precision and reliability can be enhanced by the use of proper econometric models and methods, this innovative book provides an overview of both theory and applications. Undergraduate and graduate students learning basic and advanced forecasting techniques will be able to build from strong foundations, and researchers in public and private institutions will have access to the most recent tools and insights. Readers will gain from the frequent examples that enhance understanding of how to apply techniques, first by using stylized settings and then by real data applications--focusing on macroeconomic and financial topics. This is first and foremost a book aimed at applying time series methods to solve real-world forecasting problems. Applied Economic Forecasting using Time Series Methods starts with a brief review of basic regression analysis with a focus on specific regression topics relevant for forecasting, such as model specification errors, dynamic models and their predictive properties as well as forecast evaluation and combination. Several chapters cover univariate time series models, vector autoregressive models, cointegration and error correction models, and Bayesian methods for estimating vector autoregressive models. A collection of special topics chapters study Threshold and Smooth Transition Autoregressive (TAR and STAR) models, Markov switching regime models, state space models and the Kalman filter, mixed frequency data models, nowcasting, forecasting using large datasets and, finally, volatility models. There are plenty of practical applications in the book and both EViews and R code are available online.

Handbook of Economic Forecasting

Handbook of Economic Forecasting PDF Author: G. Elliott
Publisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 0080460674
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 1070

View

Book Description
Research on forecasting methods has made important progress over recent years and these developments are brought together in the Handbook of Economic Forecasting. The handbook covers developments in how forecasts are constructed based on multivariate time-series models, dynamic factor models, nonlinear models and combination methods. The handbook also includes chapters on forecast evaluation, including evaluation of point forecasts and probability forecasts and contains chapters on survey forecasts and volatility forecasts. Areas of applications of forecasts covered in the handbook include economics, finance and marketing. *Addresses economic forecasting methodology, forecasting models, forecasting with different data structures, and the applications of forecasting methods *Insights within this volume can be applied to economics, finance and marketing disciplines

Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting

Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting PDF Author: Philip Hans Franses
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521586412
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 280

View

Book Description
An introduction to time series models for business and economic forecasting.

Forecasting Economic Time Series

Forecasting Economic Time Series PDF Author: Clive William John Granger
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economic forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 428

View

Book Description
This book has been updated to reflect developments in time series analysis and forecasting theory and practice, particularly as applied to economics. The second edition pays attention to such problems as how to evaluate and compare forecasts.

Time Series Analysis and Adjustment

Time Series Analysis and Adjustment PDF Author: Haim Y. Bleikh
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1317010175
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 148

View

Book Description
In Time Series Analysis and Adjustment the authors explain how the last four decades have brought dramatic changes in the way researchers analyze economic and financial data on behalf of economic and financial institutions and provide statistics to whomsoever requires them. Such analysis has long involved what is known as econometrics, but time series analysis is a different approach driven more by data than economic theory and focused on modelling. An understanding of time series and the application and understanding of related time series adjustment procedures is essential in areas such as risk management, business cycle analysis, and forecasting. Dealing with economic data involves grappling with things like varying numbers of working and trading days in different months and movable national holidays. Special attention has to be given to such things. However, the main problem in time series analysis is randomness. In real-life, data patterns are usually unclear, and the challenge is to uncover hidden patterns in the data and then to generate accurate forecasts. The case studies in this book demonstrate that time series adjustment methods can be efficaciously applied and utilized, for both analysis and forecasting, but they must be used in the context of reasoned statistical and economic judgment. The authors believe this is the first published study to really deal with this issue of context.

Economic Forecasting

Economic Forecasting PDF Author: Terence C. Mills
Publisher: Edward Elgar Pub
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 1192

View

Book Description
This is a collection of over 50 articles on economic forecasting. Topics cover: macroeconomic forecasting and policy-making; time series forecasting; the econometrics of forecasting; forecast evaluation; forecasting with leading indicators; and forecasting using surveys.

A Companion to Economic Forecasting

A Companion to Economic Forecasting PDF Author: Michael P. Clements
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 140517191X
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 616

View

Book Description
A Companion to Economic Forecasting provides an accessible and comprehensive account of recent developments in economic forecasting. Each of the chapters has been specially written by an expert in the field, bringing together in a single volume a range of contrasting approaches and views. Uniquely surveying forecasting in a single volume, the Companion provides a comprehensive account of the leading approaches and modeling strategies that are routinely employed.

Economic Forecasting

Economic Forecasting PDF Author: Ken Holden
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521356923
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 213

View

Book Description
This work is the only currently available text that provides comprehensive coverage of the methods and applications in the rapidly developing field of forecasting the future state of the economy.

Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting

Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting PDF Author: Philip Hans Franses
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1139952129
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages :

View

Book Description
With a new author team contributing decades of practical experience, this fully updated and thoroughly classroom-tested second edition textbook prepares students and practitioners to create effective forecasting models and master the techniques of time series analysis. Taking a practical and example-driven approach, this textbook summarises the most critical decisions, techniques and steps involved in creating forecasting models for business and economics. Students are led through the process with an entirely new set of carefully developed theoretical and practical exercises. Chapters examine the key features of economic time series, univariate time series analysis, trends, seasonality, aberrant observations, conditional heteroskedasticity and ARCH models, non-linearity and multivariate time series, making this a complete practical guide. Downloadable datasets are available online.

Applied Econometric Time Series, 4th Edition

Applied Econometric Time Series, 4th Edition PDF Author: Walter Enders
Publisher: Wiley Global Education
ISBN: 1118918665
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 496

View

Book Description
Applied Econometric Time Series, 4th Edition demonstrates modern techniques for developing models capable of forecasting, interpreting, and testing hypotheses concerning economic data. In this text, Dr. Walter Enders commits to using a “learn-by-doing” approach to help readers master time-series analysis efficiently and effectively.