Big Data on Vessel Traffic: Nowcasting Trade Flows in Real Time

Big Data on Vessel Traffic: Nowcasting Trade Flows in Real Time PDF Author: Mr.Serkan Arslanalp
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513523228
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 34

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Book Description
Vessel traffic data based on the Automatic Identification System (AIS) is a big data source for nowcasting trade activity in real time. Using Malta as a benchmark, we develop indicators of trade and maritime activity based on AIS-based port calls. We test the quality of these indicators by comparing them with official statistics on trade and maritime statistics. If the challenges associated with port call data are overcome through appropriate filtering techniques, we show that these emerging “big data” on vessel traffic could allow statistical agencies to complement existing data sources on trade and introduce new statistics that are more timely (real time), offering an innovative way to measure trade activity. That, in turn, could facilitate faster detection of turning points in economic activity. The approach could be extended to create a real-time worldwide indicator of global trade activity.

Nowcasting GDP - A Scalable Approach Using DFM, Machine Learning and Novel Data, Applied to European Economies

Nowcasting GDP - A Scalable Approach Using DFM, Machine Learning and Novel Data, Applied to European Economies PDF Author: Mr. Jean-Francois Dauphin
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 44

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Book Description
This paper describes recent work to strengthen nowcasting capacity at the IMF’s European department. It motivates and compiles datasets of standard and nontraditional variables, such as Google search and air quality. It applies standard dynamic factor models (DFMs) and several machine learning (ML) algorithms to nowcast GDP growth across a heterogenous group of European economies during normal and crisis times. Most of our methods significantly outperform the AR(1) benchmark model. Our DFMs tend to perform better during normal times while many of the ML methods we used performed strongly at identifying turning points. Our approach is easily applicable to other countries, subject to data availability.

Handbook of Economic Forecasting

Handbook of Economic Forecasting PDF Author: Graham Elliott
Publisher: Newnes
ISBN: 0444536841
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 720

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Book Description
The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues. Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics

Data Science for Economics and Finance

Data Science for Economics and Finance PDF Author: Sergio Consoli
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030668916
Category : Application software
Languages : en
Pages : 355

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Book Description
This open access book covers the use of data science, including advanced machine learning, big data analytics, Semantic Web technologies, natural language processing, social media analysis, time series analysis, among others, for applications in economics and finance. In addition, it shows some successful applications of advanced data science solutions used to extract new knowledge from data in order to improve economic forecasting models. The book starts with an introduction on the use of data science technologies in economics and finance and is followed by thirteen chapters showing success stories of the application of specific data science methodologies, touching on particular topics related to novel big data sources and technologies for economic analysis (e.g. social media and news); big data models leveraging on supervised/unsupervised (deep) machine learning; natural language processing to build economic and financial indicators; and forecasting and nowcasting of economic variables through time series analysis. This book is relevant to all stakeholders involved in digital and data-intensive research in economics and finance, helping them to understand the main opportunities and challenges, become familiar with the latest methodological findings, and learn how to use and evaluate the performances of novel tools and frameworks. It primarily targets data scientists and business analysts exploiting data science technologies, and it will also be a useful resource to research students in disciplines and courses related to these topics. Overall, readers will learn modern and effective data science solutions to create tangible innovations for economic and financial applications.

Malta: Selected Issues

Malta: Selected Issues PDF Author: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513597426
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 21

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Book Description
Selected Issues

Blockchain Economics and Financial Market Innovation

Blockchain Economics and Financial Market Innovation PDF Author: Umit Hacioglu
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030252752
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 563

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Book Description
This book discusses various aspects of blockchains in economic systems and investment strategies in crypto markets. It first addresses the topic from a conceptual and theoretical point of view, and then analyzes it from an assessment and investment angle. Further, it examines the opportunities and limitations of the taxation of crypto currency, as well as the political implications, such as regulation of speculation with crypto currencies. The book is intended for academicians and students in the fields of economics and finance.

Nowcashing: Using Daily Fiscal Data for Real-Time Macroeconomic Analysis

Nowcashing: Using Daily Fiscal Data for Real-Time Macroeconomic Analysis PDF Author: Florian Misch
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484326733
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 29

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Book Description
Traditionally, fiscal data for policy analysis are derived from official reports that, depending on the country, are published either monthly, quarterly or annually, often with significant time lags. However, innovations in digitalization of government payments and accounting systems mean that real-time daily fiscal data exist in many countries. In this paper, we argue that these data contain valuable, but underutilized and underexploited information. Possible uses include (i) realtime fiscal surveillance which allows for much more timely responses to emerging signs of fiscal stress, and (ii) nowcasting economic activity, which is especially useful in countries where higher frequency GDP statistics are unavailable.

Nature of Computation and Communication

Nature of Computation and Communication PDF Author: Phan Cong Vinh
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030929426
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 225

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Book Description
This book constitutes the refereed post-conference proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Nature of Computation and Communication, ICTCC 2021, held in October 2021. Due to COVID-19 pandemic the conference was held virtually. The 17 revised full papers presented were carefully selected from 43 submissions. The papers of ICTCC 2021 cover formal methods for self-adaptive systems and discuss natural approaches and techniques for natural computing systems and their applications.

Multiple-Aspect Analysis of Semantic Trajectories

Multiple-Aspect Analysis of Semantic Trajectories PDF Author: Konstantinos Tserpes
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030380815
Category : Application software
Languages : en
Pages : 133

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Book Description
This open access book constitutes the refereed post-conference proceedings of the First International Workshop on Multiple-Aspect Analysis of Semantic Trajectories, MASTER 2019, held in conjunction with the 19th European Conference on Machine Learning and Knowledge Discovery in Databases, ECML PKDD 2019, in Würzburg, Germany, in September 2019. The 8 full papers presented were carefully reviewed and selected from 12 submissions. They represent an interesting mix of techniques to solve recurrent as well as new problems in the semantic trajectory domain, such as data representation models, data management systems, machine learning approaches for anomaly detection, and common pathways identification.

Now-casting and the real-time data flow

Now-casting and the real-time data flow PDF Author: Marta Banbura
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 51

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Book Description


Big Data on Vessel Traffic: Nowcasting Trade Flows in Real Time

Big Data on Vessel Traffic: Nowcasting Trade Flows in Real Time PDF Author: Mr.Serkan Arslanalp
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513523228
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 34

View

Book Description
Vessel traffic data based on the Automatic Identification System (AIS) is a big data source for nowcasting trade activity in real time. Using Malta as a benchmark, we develop indicators of trade and maritime activity based on AIS-based port calls. We test the quality of these indicators by comparing them with official statistics on trade and maritime statistics. If the challenges associated with port call data are overcome through appropriate filtering techniques, we show that these emerging “big data” on vessel traffic could allow statistical agencies to complement existing data sources on trade and introduce new statistics that are more timely (real time), offering an innovative way to measure trade activity. That, in turn, could facilitate faster detection of turning points in economic activity. The approach could be extended to create a real-time worldwide indicator of global trade activity.

Nowcasting GDP - A Scalable Approach Using DFM, Machine Learning and Novel Data, Applied to European Economies

Nowcasting GDP - A Scalable Approach Using DFM, Machine Learning and Novel Data, Applied to European Economies PDF Author: Mr. Jean-Francois Dauphin
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 44

View

Book Description
This paper describes recent work to strengthen nowcasting capacity at the IMF’s European department. It motivates and compiles datasets of standard and nontraditional variables, such as Google search and air quality. It applies standard dynamic factor models (DFMs) and several machine learning (ML) algorithms to nowcast GDP growth across a heterogenous group of European economies during normal and crisis times. Most of our methods significantly outperform the AR(1) benchmark model. Our DFMs tend to perform better during normal times while many of the ML methods we used performed strongly at identifying turning points. Our approach is easily applicable to other countries, subject to data availability.

Handbook of Economic Forecasting

Handbook of Economic Forecasting PDF Author: Graham Elliott
Publisher: Newnes
ISBN: 0444536841
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 720

View

Book Description
The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues. Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics

Data Science for Economics and Finance

Data Science for Economics and Finance PDF Author: Sergio Consoli
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030668916
Category : Application software
Languages : en
Pages : 355

View

Book Description
This open access book covers the use of data science, including advanced machine learning, big data analytics, Semantic Web technologies, natural language processing, social media analysis, time series analysis, among others, for applications in economics and finance. In addition, it shows some successful applications of advanced data science solutions used to extract new knowledge from data in order to improve economic forecasting models. The book starts with an introduction on the use of data science technologies in economics and finance and is followed by thirteen chapters showing success stories of the application of specific data science methodologies, touching on particular topics related to novel big data sources and technologies for economic analysis (e.g. social media and news); big data models leveraging on supervised/unsupervised (deep) machine learning; natural language processing to build economic and financial indicators; and forecasting and nowcasting of economic variables through time series analysis. This book is relevant to all stakeholders involved in digital and data-intensive research in economics and finance, helping them to understand the main opportunities and challenges, become familiar with the latest methodological findings, and learn how to use and evaluate the performances of novel tools and frameworks. It primarily targets data scientists and business analysts exploiting data science technologies, and it will also be a useful resource to research students in disciplines and courses related to these topics. Overall, readers will learn modern and effective data science solutions to create tangible innovations for economic and financial applications.

Malta: Selected Issues

Malta: Selected Issues PDF Author: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513597426
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 21

View

Book Description
Selected Issues

Blockchain Economics and Financial Market Innovation

Blockchain Economics and Financial Market Innovation PDF Author: Umit Hacioglu
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030252752
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 563

View

Book Description
This book discusses various aspects of blockchains in economic systems and investment strategies in crypto markets. It first addresses the topic from a conceptual and theoretical point of view, and then analyzes it from an assessment and investment angle. Further, it examines the opportunities and limitations of the taxation of crypto currency, as well as the political implications, such as regulation of speculation with crypto currencies. The book is intended for academicians and students in the fields of economics and finance.

Nowcashing: Using Daily Fiscal Data for Real-Time Macroeconomic Analysis

Nowcashing: Using Daily Fiscal Data for Real-Time Macroeconomic Analysis PDF Author: Florian Misch
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484326733
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 29

View

Book Description
Traditionally, fiscal data for policy analysis are derived from official reports that, depending on the country, are published either monthly, quarterly or annually, often with significant time lags. However, innovations in digitalization of government payments and accounting systems mean that real-time daily fiscal data exist in many countries. In this paper, we argue that these data contain valuable, but underutilized and underexploited information. Possible uses include (i) realtime fiscal surveillance which allows for much more timely responses to emerging signs of fiscal stress, and (ii) nowcasting economic activity, which is especially useful in countries where higher frequency GDP statistics are unavailable.

Nature of Computation and Communication

Nature of Computation and Communication PDF Author: Phan Cong Vinh
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030929426
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 225

View

Book Description
This book constitutes the refereed post-conference proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Nature of Computation and Communication, ICTCC 2021, held in October 2021. Due to COVID-19 pandemic the conference was held virtually. The 17 revised full papers presented were carefully selected from 43 submissions. The papers of ICTCC 2021 cover formal methods for self-adaptive systems and discuss natural approaches and techniques for natural computing systems and their applications.

Multiple-Aspect Analysis of Semantic Trajectories

Multiple-Aspect Analysis of Semantic Trajectories PDF Author: Konstantinos Tserpes
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030380815
Category : Application software
Languages : en
Pages : 133

View

Book Description
This open access book constitutes the refereed post-conference proceedings of the First International Workshop on Multiple-Aspect Analysis of Semantic Trajectories, MASTER 2019, held in conjunction with the 19th European Conference on Machine Learning and Knowledge Discovery in Databases, ECML PKDD 2019, in Würzburg, Germany, in September 2019. The 8 full papers presented were carefully reviewed and selected from 12 submissions. They represent an interesting mix of techniques to solve recurrent as well as new problems in the semantic trajectory domain, such as data representation models, data management systems, machine learning approaches for anomaly detection, and common pathways identification.