The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting

The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting PDF Author: Michael P. Clements
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 9780199875511
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 744

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Book Description
This Handbook provides up-to-date coverage of both new and well-established fields in the sphere of economic forecasting. The chapters are written by world experts in their respective fields, and provide authoritative yet accessible accounts of the key concepts, subject matter, and techniques in a number of diverse but related areas. It covers the ways in which the availability of ever more plentiful data and computational power have been used in forecasting, in terms of the frequency of observations, the number of variables, and the use of multiple data vintages. Greater data availability has been coupled with developments in statistical theory and economic analysis to allow more elaborate and complicated models to be entertained; the volume provides explanations and critiques of these developments. These include factor models, DSGE models, restricted vector autoregressions, and non-linear models, as well as models for handling data observed at mixed frequencies, high-frequency data, multiple data vintages, methods for forecasting when there are structural breaks, and how breaks might be forecast. Also covered are areas which are less commonly associated with economic forecasting, such as climate change, health economics, long-horizon growth forecasting, and political elections. Econometric forecasting has important contributions to make in these areas along with how their developments inform the mainstream.

The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting

The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting PDF Author: Michael P. Clements
Publisher: OUP USA
ISBN: 0195398645
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 712

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Book Description
Greater data availability has been coupled with developments in statistical theory and economic theory to allow more elaborate and complicated models to be entertained. These include factor models, DSGE models, restricted vector autoregressions, and non-linear models.

Handbook of Economic Forecasting

Handbook of Economic Forecasting PDF Author: Graham Elliott
Publisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 0444627405
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 672

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Book Description
The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues. Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics

The Oxford Handbook of Computational Economics and Finance

The Oxford Handbook of Computational Economics and Finance PDF Author: Shu-Heng Chen
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0199844380
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages :

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Book Description
The Oxford Handbook of Computational Economics and Finance provides a survey of both the foundations of and recent advances in the frontiers of analysis and action. It is both historically and interdisciplinarily rich and also tightly connected to the rise of digital society. It begins with the conventional view of computational economics, including recent algorithmic development in computing rational expectations, volatility, and general equilibrium. It then moves from traditional computing in economics and finance to recent developments in natural computing, including applications of nature-inspired intelligence, genetic programming, swarm intelligence, and fuzzy logic. Also examined are recent developments of network and agent-based computing in economics. How these approaches are applied is examined in chapters on such subjects as trading robots and automated markets. The last part deals with the epistemology of simulation in its trinity form with the integration of simulation, computation, and dynamics. Distinctive is the focus on natural computationalism and the examination of the implications of intelligent machines for the future of computational economics and finance. Not merely individual robots, but whole integrated systems are extending their "immigration" to the world of Homo sapiens, or symbiogenesis.

Economic Forecasting

Economic Forecasting PDF Author: Graham Elliott
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400880890
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 568

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Book Description
A comprehensive and integrated approach to economic forecasting problems Economic forecasting involves choosing simple yet robust models to best approximate highly complex and evolving data-generating processes. This poses unique challenges for researchers in a host of practical forecasting situations, from forecasting budget deficits and assessing financial risk to predicting inflation and stock market returns. Economic Forecasting presents a comprehensive, unified approach to assessing the costs and benefits of different methods currently available to forecasters. This text approaches forecasting problems from the perspective of decision theory and estimation, and demonstrates the profound implications of this approach for how we understand variable selection, estimation, and combination methods for forecasting models, and how we evaluate the resulting forecasts. Both Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods are covered in depth, as are a range of cutting-edge techniques for producing point, interval, and density forecasts. The book features detailed presentations and empirical examples of a range of forecasting methods and shows how to generate forecasts in the presence of large-dimensional sets of predictor variables. The authors pay special attention to how estimation error, model uncertainty, and model instability affect forecasting performance. Presents a comprehensive and integrated approach to assessing the strengths and weaknesses of different forecasting methods Approaches forecasting from a decision theoretic and estimation perspective Covers Bayesian modeling, including methods for generating density forecasts Discusses model selection methods as well as forecast combinations Covers a large range of nonlinear prediction models, including regime switching models, threshold autoregressions, and models with time-varying volatility Features numerous empirical examples Examines the latest advances in forecast evaluation Essential for practitioners and students alike

Philosophico-Methodological Analysis of Prediction and its Role in Economics

Philosophico-Methodological Analysis of Prediction and its Role in Economics PDF Author: Wenceslao J. Gonzalez
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319088858
Category : Philosophy
Languages : en
Pages : 362

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Book Description
This book develops a philosophico-methodological analysis of prediction and its role in economics. Prediction plays a key role in economics in various ways. It can be seen as a basic science, as an applied science and in the application of this science. First, it is used by economic theory in order to test the available knowledge. In this regard, prediction has been presented as the scientific test for economics as a science. Second, prediction provides a content regarding the possible future that can be used for prescription in applied economics. Thus, it can be used as a guide for economic policy, i.e., as knowledge concerning the future to be employed for the resolution of specific problems. Third, prediction also has a role in the application of this science in the public arena. This is through the decision-making of the agents — individuals or organizations — in quite different settings, both in the realm of microeconomics and macroeconomics. Within this context, the research is organized in five parts, which discuss relevant aspects of the role of prediction in economics: I) The problem of prediction as a test for a science; II) The general orientation in methodology of science and the problem of prediction as a scientific test; III) The methodological framework of social sciences and economics: Incidence for prediction as a test; IV) Epistemology and methodology of economic prediction: Rationality and empirical approaches and V) Methodological aspects of economic prediction: From description to prescription. Thus, the book is of interest for philosophers and economists as well as policy-makers seeking to ascertain the roots of their performance. The style used lends itself to a wide audience.

The Oxford Handbook of Pricing Management

The Oxford Handbook of Pricing Management PDF Author: Özalp Özer
Publisher: OUP Oxford
ISBN: 0191634263
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 976

Get Book

Book Description
The Oxford Handbook of Pricing Management is a comprehensive guide to the theory and practice of pricing across industries, environments, and methodologies. The Handbook illustrates the wide variety of pricing approaches that are used in different industries. It also covers the diverse range of methodologies that are needed to support pricing decisions across these different industries. It includes more than 30 chapters written by pricing leaders from industry, consulting, and academia. It explains how pricing is actually performed in a range of industries, from airlines and internet advertising to electric power and health care. The volume covers the fundamental principles of pricing, such as price theory in economics, models of consumer demand, game theory, and behavioural issues in pricing, as well as specific pricing tactics such as customized pricing, nonlinear pricing, dynamic pricing, sales promotions, markdown management, revenue management, and auction pricing. In addition, there are articles on the key issues involved in structuring and managing a pricing organization, setting a global pricing strategy, and pricing in business-to-business settings.

The Oxford Handbook of Project Management

The Oxford Handbook of Project Management PDF Author: Peter W. G. Morris
Publisher: OUP Oxford
ISBN: 0191629383
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 576

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Book Description
The Oxford Handbook of Project Management presents and discusses leading ideas in the management of projects. Positioning project management as a domain much broader and more strategic than simply 'execution management', this Handbook draws on the insights of over 40 scholars to chart the development of the subject over the last 50 years or more as an area of increasing practical and academic interest. It suggests we could be entering an emerging 'third wave' of analysis and interpretation following its early technical and operational beginnings and the subsequent shift to a focus on projects and their management. Topics dealt with include: the historical evolution of the subject; its theoretical base; professionalism; business and societal context; strategy; organization; governance; innovation; overruns; risk; information management; procurement; relationships and trust; knowledge management; practice and teams. This handbook is of particular relevance to those interested in the research issues underlying project management.

The Oxford Handbook of the Ethiopian Economy

The Oxford Handbook of the Ethiopian Economy PDF Author: Fantu Cheru
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0192546457
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 872

Get Book

Book Description
From a war-torn and famine-plagued country at the beginning of the 1990s, Ethiopia is today emerging as one of the fastest-growing economies in Africa. Growth in Ethiopia has surpassed that of every other sub-Saharan country over the past decade and is forecast by the International Monetary Fund to exceed 8 percent over the next two years. The government has set its eyes on transforming the country into a middle-income country by 2025, and into a leading manufacturing hub in Africa. The Oxford Handbook of the Ethiopian Economy studies this country's unique model of development, where the state plays a central role, and where a successful industrialization drive has challenged the long-held erroneous assumption that industrial policy will never work in poor African countries. While much of the volume is focused on post-1991 economic development policy and strategy, the analysis is set against the background of the long history of Ethiopia, and more specifically on the Imperial period that ended in 1974, the socialist development experiment of the Derg regime between 1974 and 1991, and the policies and strategies of the current EPRDF government that assumed power in 1991. Including a range of contributions from both academic and professional standpoints, this volume is a key reference work on the economy of Ethiopia.

The Oxford Handbook of the Economics of Central Banking

The Oxford Handbook of the Economics of Central Banking PDF Author: David G. Mayes
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0190626216
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 656

Get Book

Book Description
The economic influence of central banks has received ever more attention given their centrality during the financial crises that led to the Great Recession, strains in the European Union, and the challenges to the Euro. The Oxford Handbook of the Economics of Central Banking reflects the state of the art in the theory and practice and covers a wide range of topics that will provide insight to students, scholars, and practitioners. As an up to date reference of the current and potential challenges faced by central banks in the conduct of monetary policy and in the search for the maintenance of financial system stability, this Oxford Handbook covers a wide range of essential issues. The first section provides insights into central bank governance, the differing degrees of central bank independence, and the internal dynamics of their decision making. The next section focuses on questions of whether central banks can ameliorate fiscal burdens, various strategies to affect monetary policy, and how the global financial crisis affected the relationship between the traditional focus on inflation targeting and unconventional policy instruments such as quantitative easing (QE), foreign exchange market interventions, negative interest rates, and forward guidance. The next two sections turn to central bank communications and management of expectations and then mechanisms of policy transmission. The fifth part explores the challenges of recent developments in the economy and debates about the roles central banks should play, focusing on micro- and macro-prudential arguments. The implications of recent developments for policy modeling are covered in the last section. The breadth and depth enhances understanding of the challenges and opportunities facing central banks.

The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting

The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting PDF Author: Michael P. Clements
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 9780199875511
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 744

View

Book Description
This Handbook provides up-to-date coverage of both new and well-established fields in the sphere of economic forecasting. The chapters are written by world experts in their respective fields, and provide authoritative yet accessible accounts of the key concepts, subject matter, and techniques in a number of diverse but related areas. It covers the ways in which the availability of ever more plentiful data and computational power have been used in forecasting, in terms of the frequency of observations, the number of variables, and the use of multiple data vintages. Greater data availability has been coupled with developments in statistical theory and economic analysis to allow more elaborate and complicated models to be entertained; the volume provides explanations and critiques of these developments. These include factor models, DSGE models, restricted vector autoregressions, and non-linear models, as well as models for handling data observed at mixed frequencies, high-frequency data, multiple data vintages, methods for forecasting when there are structural breaks, and how breaks might be forecast. Also covered are areas which are less commonly associated with economic forecasting, such as climate change, health economics, long-horizon growth forecasting, and political elections. Econometric forecasting has important contributions to make in these areas along with how their developments inform the mainstream.

The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting

The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting PDF Author: Michael P. Clements
Publisher: OUP USA
ISBN: 0195398645
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 712

View

Book Description
Greater data availability has been coupled with developments in statistical theory and economic theory to allow more elaborate and complicated models to be entertained. These include factor models, DSGE models, restricted vector autoregressions, and non-linear models.

Handbook of Economic Forecasting

Handbook of Economic Forecasting PDF Author: Graham Elliott
Publisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 0444627405
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 672

View

Book Description
The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues. Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics

The Oxford Handbook of Computational Economics and Finance

The Oxford Handbook of Computational Economics and Finance PDF Author: Shu-Heng Chen
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0199844380
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages :

View

Book Description
The Oxford Handbook of Computational Economics and Finance provides a survey of both the foundations of and recent advances in the frontiers of analysis and action. It is both historically and interdisciplinarily rich and also tightly connected to the rise of digital society. It begins with the conventional view of computational economics, including recent algorithmic development in computing rational expectations, volatility, and general equilibrium. It then moves from traditional computing in economics and finance to recent developments in natural computing, including applications of nature-inspired intelligence, genetic programming, swarm intelligence, and fuzzy logic. Also examined are recent developments of network and agent-based computing in economics. How these approaches are applied is examined in chapters on such subjects as trading robots and automated markets. The last part deals with the epistemology of simulation in its trinity form with the integration of simulation, computation, and dynamics. Distinctive is the focus on natural computationalism and the examination of the implications of intelligent machines for the future of computational economics and finance. Not merely individual robots, but whole integrated systems are extending their "immigration" to the world of Homo sapiens, or symbiogenesis.

Economic Forecasting

Economic Forecasting PDF Author: Graham Elliott
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400880890
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 568

View

Book Description
A comprehensive and integrated approach to economic forecasting problems Economic forecasting involves choosing simple yet robust models to best approximate highly complex and evolving data-generating processes. This poses unique challenges for researchers in a host of practical forecasting situations, from forecasting budget deficits and assessing financial risk to predicting inflation and stock market returns. Economic Forecasting presents a comprehensive, unified approach to assessing the costs and benefits of different methods currently available to forecasters. This text approaches forecasting problems from the perspective of decision theory and estimation, and demonstrates the profound implications of this approach for how we understand variable selection, estimation, and combination methods for forecasting models, and how we evaluate the resulting forecasts. Both Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods are covered in depth, as are a range of cutting-edge techniques for producing point, interval, and density forecasts. The book features detailed presentations and empirical examples of a range of forecasting methods and shows how to generate forecasts in the presence of large-dimensional sets of predictor variables. The authors pay special attention to how estimation error, model uncertainty, and model instability affect forecasting performance. Presents a comprehensive and integrated approach to assessing the strengths and weaknesses of different forecasting methods Approaches forecasting from a decision theoretic and estimation perspective Covers Bayesian modeling, including methods for generating density forecasts Discusses model selection methods as well as forecast combinations Covers a large range of nonlinear prediction models, including regime switching models, threshold autoregressions, and models with time-varying volatility Features numerous empirical examples Examines the latest advances in forecast evaluation Essential for practitioners and students alike

Philosophico-Methodological Analysis of Prediction and its Role in Economics

Philosophico-Methodological Analysis of Prediction and its Role in Economics PDF Author: Wenceslao J. Gonzalez
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319088858
Category : Philosophy
Languages : en
Pages : 362

View

Book Description
This book develops a philosophico-methodological analysis of prediction and its role in economics. Prediction plays a key role in economics in various ways. It can be seen as a basic science, as an applied science and in the application of this science. First, it is used by economic theory in order to test the available knowledge. In this regard, prediction has been presented as the scientific test for economics as a science. Second, prediction provides a content regarding the possible future that can be used for prescription in applied economics. Thus, it can be used as a guide for economic policy, i.e., as knowledge concerning the future to be employed for the resolution of specific problems. Third, prediction also has a role in the application of this science in the public arena. This is through the decision-making of the agents — individuals or organizations — in quite different settings, both in the realm of microeconomics and macroeconomics. Within this context, the research is organized in five parts, which discuss relevant aspects of the role of prediction in economics: I) The problem of prediction as a test for a science; II) The general orientation in methodology of science and the problem of prediction as a scientific test; III) The methodological framework of social sciences and economics: Incidence for prediction as a test; IV) Epistemology and methodology of economic prediction: Rationality and empirical approaches and V) Methodological aspects of economic prediction: From description to prescription. Thus, the book is of interest for philosophers and economists as well as policy-makers seeking to ascertain the roots of their performance. The style used lends itself to a wide audience.

The Oxford Handbook of Pricing Management

The Oxford Handbook of Pricing Management PDF Author: Özalp Özer
Publisher: OUP Oxford
ISBN: 0191634263
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 976

View

Book Description
The Oxford Handbook of Pricing Management is a comprehensive guide to the theory and practice of pricing across industries, environments, and methodologies. The Handbook illustrates the wide variety of pricing approaches that are used in different industries. It also covers the diverse range of methodologies that are needed to support pricing decisions across these different industries. It includes more than 30 chapters written by pricing leaders from industry, consulting, and academia. It explains how pricing is actually performed in a range of industries, from airlines and internet advertising to electric power and health care. The volume covers the fundamental principles of pricing, such as price theory in economics, models of consumer demand, game theory, and behavioural issues in pricing, as well as specific pricing tactics such as customized pricing, nonlinear pricing, dynamic pricing, sales promotions, markdown management, revenue management, and auction pricing. In addition, there are articles on the key issues involved in structuring and managing a pricing organization, setting a global pricing strategy, and pricing in business-to-business settings.

The Oxford Handbook of Project Management

The Oxford Handbook of Project Management PDF Author: Peter W. G. Morris
Publisher: OUP Oxford
ISBN: 0191629383
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 576

View

Book Description
The Oxford Handbook of Project Management presents and discusses leading ideas in the management of projects. Positioning project management as a domain much broader and more strategic than simply 'execution management', this Handbook draws on the insights of over 40 scholars to chart the development of the subject over the last 50 years or more as an area of increasing practical and academic interest. It suggests we could be entering an emerging 'third wave' of analysis and interpretation following its early technical and operational beginnings and the subsequent shift to a focus on projects and their management. Topics dealt with include: the historical evolution of the subject; its theoretical base; professionalism; business and societal context; strategy; organization; governance; innovation; overruns; risk; information management; procurement; relationships and trust; knowledge management; practice and teams. This handbook is of particular relevance to those interested in the research issues underlying project management.

The Oxford Handbook of the Ethiopian Economy

The Oxford Handbook of the Ethiopian Economy PDF Author: Fantu Cheru
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0192546457
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 872

View

Book Description
From a war-torn and famine-plagued country at the beginning of the 1990s, Ethiopia is today emerging as one of the fastest-growing economies in Africa. Growth in Ethiopia has surpassed that of every other sub-Saharan country over the past decade and is forecast by the International Monetary Fund to exceed 8 percent over the next two years. The government has set its eyes on transforming the country into a middle-income country by 2025, and into a leading manufacturing hub in Africa. The Oxford Handbook of the Ethiopian Economy studies this country's unique model of development, where the state plays a central role, and where a successful industrialization drive has challenged the long-held erroneous assumption that industrial policy will never work in poor African countries. While much of the volume is focused on post-1991 economic development policy and strategy, the analysis is set against the background of the long history of Ethiopia, and more specifically on the Imperial period that ended in 1974, the socialist development experiment of the Derg regime between 1974 and 1991, and the policies and strategies of the current EPRDF government that assumed power in 1991. Including a range of contributions from both academic and professional standpoints, this volume is a key reference work on the economy of Ethiopia.

The Oxford Handbook of the Economics of Central Banking

The Oxford Handbook of the Economics of Central Banking PDF Author: David G. Mayes
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0190626216
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 656

View

Book Description
The economic influence of central banks has received ever more attention given their centrality during the financial crises that led to the Great Recession, strains in the European Union, and the challenges to the Euro. The Oxford Handbook of the Economics of Central Banking reflects the state of the art in the theory and practice and covers a wide range of topics that will provide insight to students, scholars, and practitioners. As an up to date reference of the current and potential challenges faced by central banks in the conduct of monetary policy and in the search for the maintenance of financial system stability, this Oxford Handbook covers a wide range of essential issues. The first section provides insights into central bank governance, the differing degrees of central bank independence, and the internal dynamics of their decision making. The next section focuses on questions of whether central banks can ameliorate fiscal burdens, various strategies to affect monetary policy, and how the global financial crisis affected the relationship between the traditional focus on inflation targeting and unconventional policy instruments such as quantitative easing (QE), foreign exchange market interventions, negative interest rates, and forward guidance. The next two sections turn to central bank communications and management of expectations and then mechanisms of policy transmission. The fifth part explores the challenges of recent developments in the economy and debates about the roles central banks should play, focusing on micro- and macro-prudential arguments. The implications of recent developments for policy modeling are covered in the last section. The breadth and depth enhances understanding of the challenges and opportunities facing central banks.