Trade Integration and Risk Sharing

Trade Integration and Risk Sharing PDF Author: Aart Kraay
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Balance of trade
Languages : en
Pages : 36

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Book Description
What are the effects of increased trade in goods and services on the trade balance? We study the effects of reducing transport costs in a Ricardian model with complete asset markets. Trade integration has three effects on the structure of the economy: a reduction in the home bias in consumption, an increase in the degree of international competition in goods markets, and a reduction in real exchange rate volatility. The reduction in the home bias increases the volatility of the trade balance regardless of the source of shocks. Except for the case where supply shocks lead to counter-cyclical trade balances, (i) the increase in international competition also increases the volatility of the trade balance; and (ii) the reduction in real exchange rate volatility increases the volatility of the trade balance if risk aversion is low but lowers it if risk aversion is high. The opposite applies when supply shocks lead to counter-cyclical trade balances. We calibrate the model to U.S. data and provide a quantitative assessment of the effects of increased trade in services on the trade balance.

Capital Market Integration and Consumption Risk Sharing Over the Long Run

Capital Market Integration and Consumption Risk Sharing Over the Long Run PDF Author: Jesper Rangvid
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 57

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Book Description
We empirically investigate time variation in capital market integration and consumption risk sharing using data for 16 countries from 1875 to 2012. We show that there has been considerable variation over time in the degrees of capital market integration and consumption risk sharing and that higher capital market integration forecasts more consumption risk sharing in the future. This finding is robust to controlling for trade openness and exchange rate volatility as alternative drivers of risk sharing. Finally, we calculate the welfare costs of imperfect consumption risk sharing and find that these costs vary over time, line up with variation in risk sharing, and are quite substantial during periods of low risk sharing.

Commodity Trade and International Risk Sharing

Commodity Trade and International Risk Sharing PDF Author: Harold L. Cole
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Capital market
Languages : en
Pages : 68

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Book Description
This paper evaluates the gains from international risk sharing in some simple general-equilibrium models with output uncertainty. Under empirically plausible calibration, the Incremental loss from a ban on international portfolio diversification is estimated to be quite small--0.15 percent of output per year is a representative figure. Even the theoretical gains from asset trade may disappear under alternative sets of assumptions on preferences and technology. The paper argues that the small magnitude of potential trade gains, when coupled with small costs of cross-border financial transactions, may explain the apparently inconsistent findings of empirical studies on the degree of international capital mobility.

Globalization and Economic Integration

Globalization and Economic Integration PDF Author: Noel Gaston
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN: 1849806713
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 304

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Book Description
Noel Gaston and Ahmed M. Khalid s volume offers fascinating insights on the development, causes, and consequences of globalization in the Asia-Pacific. The outstanding collection of chapters combines theory with rigorous econometrics, making the book a must-read for every student of globalization. At a time where the global crisis gave new arguments to the critics of globalization, the questions raised in this book, and the answers given, are essential reading for academics and politicians alike. Axel Dreher, University of Goettingen, Germany Given the importance of globalization in today s world, this salutary and timely book explores how globalization is specifically shaping the Asia-Pacific. It investigates future prospects and challenges, identifies the key winners and losers, and concludes in many cases that the portents for globalization are not particularly promising. Prominent economists and policy scholars examine a wide range of topics pertinent to globalization and economic integration in the Asia-Pacific, encompassing macroeconomic coordination and financial market integration; regionalism and preferential trade agreements; and immigration and labor markets, including gender issues and the impact of outsourcing. Through these analyses, the expert contributors illustrate the importance of market participants and regulators clearly understanding the risks associated with the present stage of globalization. They show that national policy makers need to reconfigure the regulatory framework following international lessons from previous financial crises experienced in the last two decades, and that financial literacy is essential for market participants, especially in emerging economies. Many of the issues discussed will prove useful in promoting the development of a new international financial architecture, comprising measures that will help reap the full benefits of globalization. This stimulating and challenging book will strongly appeal to academics, advanced undergraduates, postgraduates, researchers, and policy makers in the fields of Asian studies, international economics, and international business.

Business Cycle Synchronisation and Economic Integration

Business Cycle Synchronisation and Economic Integration PDF Author: Marcus Kappler
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3790828556
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 194

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Book Description
This book offers the reader a state-of-the-art overview on theory and empirics of business cycle synchronisation, structural reform and economic integration. Focusing on the ongoing integration process in the euro area and the EU, it analyses the integration process that has taken place since the 1980s and which is marked by the advent of the euro and the substantial enlargement that resulted from the accession of 12 new Member States in East and Southern Europe.

Real and Financial Integration in Asia

Real and Financial Integration in Asia PDF Author: Shandre M. Thangavelu
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1136251715
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 256

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Book Description
This book investigates the impact of both real and financial integration to growth and to welfare, and to enquire whether increases in either or both forms build the linkage between the real and financial economy. It contributes to the following two areas: (1) Research of economic developments in East Asia, the most dynamic and populous region in the world, in itself is important for researchers, policy makers, journalists, business people and others. East Asia’s economic developments influence peoples’ lives not only in East Asia but also in other parts of the world. (2) Many aspects of East Asian experiences in economic development are unique, making research of East Asia attractive and important to discern mechanisms of economic development. The first part of this study begins with chapters that address the measurement of regional integration compared with the engagement with the global economy and how this influences the aggregate behavior of the economies. The second part turns to consideration of the financial sector and the efficiency and performance of banking in the region. This allows a discussion whether, in the current crisis, the banking sector was an important channel of financial shock into real behavior. The third part turns to the corporate sector. Using data on firms, type of finance used by firms, its impact on their performance, and ownership structure influence over the productivity growth are discussed. Based on the findings, the book presents several policy recommendation and future research agenda for further economic integration in East Asia.

How Does Financial Globalization Affect Risk Sharing? Patterns and Channels

How Does Financial Globalization Affect Risk Sharing? Patterns and Channels PDF Author: M. Ayhan Kose
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 48

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Book Description
In theory, one of the main benefits of financial globalization is that it should allow for more efficient international risk sharing. This paper provides a comprehensive empirical evaluation of the patterns of risk sharing among different groups of countries and examines how international financial integration has affected the evolution of these patterns. Using a variety of empirical techniques, we conclude that there is at best a modest degree of international risk sharing, and certainly nowhere near the levels predicted by theory. In addition, only industrial countries have attained better risk sharing outcomes during the recent period of globalization. Developing countries have, by and large, been shut out of this benefit. The most interesting result is that even emerging market economies, which have experienced large increases in cross-border capital flows, have seen little change in their ability to share risk. We find that the composition of flows may help explain why emerging markets have not been able to realize this presumed benefit of financial globalization. In particular, our results suggest that portfolio debt, which has dominated the external liability stocks of most emerging markets until recently, is not conducive to risk sharing.

Essays on International Portfolio Allocation and Risk Sharing

Essays on International Portfolio Allocation and Risk Sharing PDF Author: Hande Kucuk Tuger
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :

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Book Description
This thesis contributes to the theoretical literature that analyses the link between international asset trade and international risk sharing. Despite the massive increase in cross-border asset trade since the 1990's, consumption risk sharing across countries remains limited. In standard international business cycle models, efficient risk sharing requires that consumption should be higher in the country where it is cheaper to consume, implying a high positive correlation between relative consumption and real exchange rate, which is strongly rejected in the data. Recent contributions show that it is possible to account for this so-called 'consumption-real exchange rate anomaly' in models with goods and financial market frictions where international asset trade is restricted to a single non-contingent bond. Chapter 1 analyses whether this class of models can account for the anomaly under a richer asset market structure where agents can trade in domestic and foreign currency bonds. Even such a small departure from the single bond economy implies too much risk sharing compared to the data although the number of assets that can be traded is less than the number of shocks affecting each economy. Introducing demand shocks alongside sector-specific productivity shocks can improve the performance of the model only under specific parameter and monetary policy settings. Chapter 2 extends this analysis to study the implications of international trade in equities, portfolio transaction costs and recursive utility. Chapter 3 studies the interaction between monetary policy and foreign currency positions in more detail. Different monetary policy regimes can lead to different foreign currency positions by changing the cyclical properties of the nominal ex- change rate. These external positions, in turn, affect the cross-border transmission of monetary policy shocks via a valuation channel. The way export prices are set has important implications for optimal foreign currency positions and the valuation channel when prices are sticky and financial markets are incomplete. Chapter 4 compares the international transmission of uncertainty shocks under alternative asset markets with an emphasis on the behaviour of net foreign assets, exchange rate and currency risk premium and shows that a model with restricted asset trade performs better than a model with complete financial integration in matching certain aspects of the data regarding the dynamics of these variables in response to increased macroeconomic uncertainty.

Regional Economic Outlook, October 2011, Asia and Pacific

Regional Economic Outlook, October 2011, Asia and Pacific PDF Author: International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1616351276
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 57

Get Book

Book Description
In line with the weaker global outlook, growth in Asia is expected to be slightly lower in 2011-12 than forecast in April 2011, mainly as a result of weakening external demand, but the expansion should remain healthy, supported by domestic demand, which has been generally resilient. Overheating pressures remain elevated in a number of economies, with credit growth still robust and inflation momentum generally high, though inflation is expected to recede modestly after peaking in 2011. The sell-off in Asian financial markets in August and September 2011 underscores that an escalation of euro area financial turbulence and a renewed slowdown in the United States could have severe macroeconomic and financial spillovers to Asia. Against this backdrop, Asian low-income and Pacific Island economies face particular challenges in the near and medium term. In low-income countries, the fight against inflation is complicated by strong second-round effects, the need to phase out subsidies, and less well-anchored inflation expectations. Pacific Island economies need to undertake further structural reforms to lift potential growth. The downside risks to growth amid persistent overheating pressures present Asian policymakers with a delicate balancing act, as they need to guard against risks to growth but also limit the adverse impact of prolonged easy financial conditions on inflation and balance sheet vulnerabilities. At the same time, the weakness in global demand only confirms that Asia would greatly benefit from further progress in rebalancing growth by developing domestic sources of demand. In addition to structural reforms, this would require a reprioritization of fiscal spending, in order to create fiscal space for critical infrastructure investment and social priority expenditure.

Trade Integration and Risk Sharing

Trade Integration and Risk Sharing PDF Author: Aart Kraay
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Balance of trade
Languages : en
Pages : 36

View

Book Description
What are the effects of increased trade in goods and services on the trade balance? We study the effects of reducing transport costs in a Ricardian model with complete asset markets. Trade integration has three effects on the structure of the economy: a reduction in the home bias in consumption, an increase in the degree of international competition in goods markets, and a reduction in real exchange rate volatility. The reduction in the home bias increases the volatility of the trade balance regardless of the source of shocks. Except for the case where supply shocks lead to counter-cyclical trade balances, (i) the increase in international competition also increases the volatility of the trade balance; and (ii) the reduction in real exchange rate volatility increases the volatility of the trade balance if risk aversion is low but lowers it if risk aversion is high. The opposite applies when supply shocks lead to counter-cyclical trade balances. We calibrate the model to U.S. data and provide a quantitative assessment of the effects of increased trade in services on the trade balance.

Capital Market Integration and Consumption Risk Sharing Over the Long Run

Capital Market Integration and Consumption Risk Sharing Over the Long Run PDF Author: Jesper Rangvid
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 57

View

Book Description
We empirically investigate time variation in capital market integration and consumption risk sharing using data for 16 countries from 1875 to 2012. We show that there has been considerable variation over time in the degrees of capital market integration and consumption risk sharing and that higher capital market integration forecasts more consumption risk sharing in the future. This finding is robust to controlling for trade openness and exchange rate volatility as alternative drivers of risk sharing. Finally, we calculate the welfare costs of imperfect consumption risk sharing and find that these costs vary over time, line up with variation in risk sharing, and are quite substantial during periods of low risk sharing.

Financial Integration and Consumption Risk Sharing in East Asia

Financial Integration and Consumption Risk Sharing in East Asia PDF Author: Soyoung Kim
Publisher: 대외경제정책연구원
ISBN:
Category : Consumption (Economics)
Languages : en
Pages : 35

View

Book Description


Commodity Trade and International Risk Sharing

Commodity Trade and International Risk Sharing PDF Author: Harold L. Cole
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Capital market
Languages : en
Pages : 68

View

Book Description
This paper evaluates the gains from international risk sharing in some simple general-equilibrium models with output uncertainty. Under empirically plausible calibration, the Incremental loss from a ban on international portfolio diversification is estimated to be quite small--0.15 percent of output per year is a representative figure. Even the theoretical gains from asset trade may disappear under alternative sets of assumptions on preferences and technology. The paper argues that the small magnitude of potential trade gains, when coupled with small costs of cross-border financial transactions, may explain the apparently inconsistent findings of empirical studies on the degree of international capital mobility.

Globalization and Economic Integration

Globalization and Economic Integration PDF Author: Noel Gaston
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN: 1849806713
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 304

View

Book Description
Noel Gaston and Ahmed M. Khalid s volume offers fascinating insights on the development, causes, and consequences of globalization in the Asia-Pacific. The outstanding collection of chapters combines theory with rigorous econometrics, making the book a must-read for every student of globalization. At a time where the global crisis gave new arguments to the critics of globalization, the questions raised in this book, and the answers given, are essential reading for academics and politicians alike. Axel Dreher, University of Goettingen, Germany Given the importance of globalization in today s world, this salutary and timely book explores how globalization is specifically shaping the Asia-Pacific. It investigates future prospects and challenges, identifies the key winners and losers, and concludes in many cases that the portents for globalization are not particularly promising. Prominent economists and policy scholars examine a wide range of topics pertinent to globalization and economic integration in the Asia-Pacific, encompassing macroeconomic coordination and financial market integration; regionalism and preferential trade agreements; and immigration and labor markets, including gender issues and the impact of outsourcing. Through these analyses, the expert contributors illustrate the importance of market participants and regulators clearly understanding the risks associated with the present stage of globalization. They show that national policy makers need to reconfigure the regulatory framework following international lessons from previous financial crises experienced in the last two decades, and that financial literacy is essential for market participants, especially in emerging economies. Many of the issues discussed will prove useful in promoting the development of a new international financial architecture, comprising measures that will help reap the full benefits of globalization. This stimulating and challenging book will strongly appeal to academics, advanced undergraduates, postgraduates, researchers, and policy makers in the fields of Asian studies, international economics, and international business.

Business Cycle Synchronisation and Economic Integration

Business Cycle Synchronisation and Economic Integration PDF Author: Marcus Kappler
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3790828556
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 194

View

Book Description
This book offers the reader a state-of-the-art overview on theory and empirics of business cycle synchronisation, structural reform and economic integration. Focusing on the ongoing integration process in the euro area and the EU, it analyses the integration process that has taken place since the 1980s and which is marked by the advent of the euro and the substantial enlargement that resulted from the accession of 12 new Member States in East and Southern Europe.

Real and Financial Integration in Asia

Real and Financial Integration in Asia PDF Author: Shandre M. Thangavelu
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1136251715
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 256

View

Book Description
This book investigates the impact of both real and financial integration to growth and to welfare, and to enquire whether increases in either or both forms build the linkage between the real and financial economy. It contributes to the following two areas: (1) Research of economic developments in East Asia, the most dynamic and populous region in the world, in itself is important for researchers, policy makers, journalists, business people and others. East Asia’s economic developments influence peoples’ lives not only in East Asia but also in other parts of the world. (2) Many aspects of East Asian experiences in economic development are unique, making research of East Asia attractive and important to discern mechanisms of economic development. The first part of this study begins with chapters that address the measurement of regional integration compared with the engagement with the global economy and how this influences the aggregate behavior of the economies. The second part turns to consideration of the financial sector and the efficiency and performance of banking in the region. This allows a discussion whether, in the current crisis, the banking sector was an important channel of financial shock into real behavior. The third part turns to the corporate sector. Using data on firms, type of finance used by firms, its impact on their performance, and ownership structure influence over the productivity growth are discussed. Based on the findings, the book presents several policy recommendation and future research agenda for further economic integration in East Asia.

How Does Financial Globalization Affect Risk Sharing? Patterns and Channels

How Does Financial Globalization Affect Risk Sharing? Patterns and Channels PDF Author: M. Ayhan Kose
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 48

View

Book Description
In theory, one of the main benefits of financial globalization is that it should allow for more efficient international risk sharing. This paper provides a comprehensive empirical evaluation of the patterns of risk sharing among different groups of countries and examines how international financial integration has affected the evolution of these patterns. Using a variety of empirical techniques, we conclude that there is at best a modest degree of international risk sharing, and certainly nowhere near the levels predicted by theory. In addition, only industrial countries have attained better risk sharing outcomes during the recent period of globalization. Developing countries have, by and large, been shut out of this benefit. The most interesting result is that even emerging market economies, which have experienced large increases in cross-border capital flows, have seen little change in their ability to share risk. We find that the composition of flows may help explain why emerging markets have not been able to realize this presumed benefit of financial globalization. In particular, our results suggest that portfolio debt, which has dominated the external liability stocks of most emerging markets until recently, is not conducive to risk sharing.

Essays on International Portfolio Allocation and Risk Sharing

Essays on International Portfolio Allocation and Risk Sharing PDF Author: Hande Kucuk Tuger
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :

View

Book Description
This thesis contributes to the theoretical literature that analyses the link between international asset trade and international risk sharing. Despite the massive increase in cross-border asset trade since the 1990's, consumption risk sharing across countries remains limited. In standard international business cycle models, efficient risk sharing requires that consumption should be higher in the country where it is cheaper to consume, implying a high positive correlation between relative consumption and real exchange rate, which is strongly rejected in the data. Recent contributions show that it is possible to account for this so-called 'consumption-real exchange rate anomaly' in models with goods and financial market frictions where international asset trade is restricted to a single non-contingent bond. Chapter 1 analyses whether this class of models can account for the anomaly under a richer asset market structure where agents can trade in domestic and foreign currency bonds. Even such a small departure from the single bond economy implies too much risk sharing compared to the data although the number of assets that can be traded is less than the number of shocks affecting each economy. Introducing demand shocks alongside sector-specific productivity shocks can improve the performance of the model only under specific parameter and monetary policy settings. Chapter 2 extends this analysis to study the implications of international trade in equities, portfolio transaction costs and recursive utility. Chapter 3 studies the interaction between monetary policy and foreign currency positions in more detail. Different monetary policy regimes can lead to different foreign currency positions by changing the cyclical properties of the nominal ex- change rate. These external positions, in turn, affect the cross-border transmission of monetary policy shocks via a valuation channel. The way export prices are set has important implications for optimal foreign currency positions and the valuation channel when prices are sticky and financial markets are incomplete. Chapter 4 compares the international transmission of uncertainty shocks under alternative asset markets with an emphasis on the behaviour of net foreign assets, exchange rate and currency risk premium and shows that a model with restricted asset trade performs better than a model with complete financial integration in matching certain aspects of the data regarding the dynamics of these variables in response to increased macroeconomic uncertainty.

Regional Economic Outlook, October 2011, Asia and Pacific

Regional Economic Outlook, October 2011, Asia and Pacific PDF Author: International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1616351276
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 57

View

Book Description
In line with the weaker global outlook, growth in Asia is expected to be slightly lower in 2011-12 than forecast in April 2011, mainly as a result of weakening external demand, but the expansion should remain healthy, supported by domestic demand, which has been generally resilient. Overheating pressures remain elevated in a number of economies, with credit growth still robust and inflation momentum generally high, though inflation is expected to recede modestly after peaking in 2011. The sell-off in Asian financial markets in August and September 2011 underscores that an escalation of euro area financial turbulence and a renewed slowdown in the United States could have severe macroeconomic and financial spillovers to Asia. Against this backdrop, Asian low-income and Pacific Island economies face particular challenges in the near and medium term. In low-income countries, the fight against inflation is complicated by strong second-round effects, the need to phase out subsidies, and less well-anchored inflation expectations. Pacific Island economies need to undertake further structural reforms to lift potential growth. The downside risks to growth amid persistent overheating pressures present Asian policymakers with a delicate balancing act, as they need to guard against risks to growth but also limit the adverse impact of prolonged easy financial conditions on inflation and balance sheet vulnerabilities. At the same time, the weakness in global demand only confirms that Asia would greatly benefit from further progress in rebalancing growth by developing domestic sources of demand. In addition to structural reforms, this would require a reprioritization of fiscal spending, in order to create fiscal space for critical infrastructure investment and social priority expenditure.